MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74600116ae5208bc726e44912755d5a8df48c3fed1d5bbf02125e394bb7fb35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 60c | 5,939$3,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,585.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 38c | 2,855$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.8 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 38c | 1,929$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.97 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 38c | 1,929$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.97 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 1,021$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.55 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.89 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 29c | 390.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 361.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 343.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0717…835ebacked Under | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 71c | 299$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.29 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 266.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…60c0backed Over | 73c | 260.34$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 224$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 52c | 187.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 39c | 169.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 62c | 80.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 72c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 64c | 59.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 59.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 20.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.