Premier League · resolved market
Southampton FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x747b72b19ab15df70fd4f14822e9bf099bc3f887b46b88388b87fe7c0230b510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,596$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.57 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,052$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.01 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 50c | 928.14$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.08 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 23c | 251.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 236 | 32.2%76 W · 160 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…16ecbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 159.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 71c | 105$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 101.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 60c | 76.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 56.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Under | 22c | 51.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 54c | 46.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…f9e8backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Under | 55c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Southampton FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Southampton FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Southampton FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.