Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x747d7b187ef99f103c4568a4d08b6d14c38cf2508707a0f4a1cc05e9c206d86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,156 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8310…8967backed Over | 52c | 1,614$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.91 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…2224backed Under | 48c | 356.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa76…36d1backed Over | 66c | 290$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaf…75fdbacked Under | 34c | 248$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bd…7dadbacked Over | 66c | 245$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…2482backed Over | 66c | 240$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…abbebacked Over | 66c | 234$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…5faebacked Over | 66c | 216$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…183dbacked Under | 34c | 215$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…cc59backed Over | 66c | 212$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Under | 48c | 204.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…4119backed Under | 34c | 203$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…b910backed Under | 34c | 196$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…98f3backed Under | 34c | 192$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…adbcbacked Under | 34c | 186$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…ad31backed Over | 66c | 181$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…cdc1backed Over | 66c | 177$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf450…f0f6backed Under | 34c | 157$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Over | 53c | 138.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…d1edbacked Under | 34c | 134$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 133.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d1…5053backed Under | 34c | 133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9139…2bacbacked Under | 34c | 131$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 53c | 120.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…a715backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)Xtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.