Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Missouri State Bears (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74977123712c592a0bc85ea21660c8473341d2dae8d6d6bad4724468074d291d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Missouri State Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,116 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Missouri State Bears | 59c | 250.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 47c | 214.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Missouri State Bears | 76c | 110.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 30c | 94.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Missouri State Bears | 59c | 59.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Missouri State Bears | 57c | 50.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Missouri State Bears | 52c | 50.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Missouri State Bears | 55c | 32.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 176 | 27.8%49 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Missouri State Bears | 71c | 28.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Missouri State Bears | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.