MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c121e43e0822dadf24cd65072e6995280b7379a807e0b55973b78047c0b44a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 43c | 1,647$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 57c | 1,627$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 39c | 174.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 56c | 168.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceba…b645backed Under | 44c | 62.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…ad9dbacked Under | 45c | 62.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…ae60backed Under | 45c | 60.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…6d02backed Under | 44c | 60.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef1…e7f4backed Under | 44c | 59.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…0e00backed Under | 45c | 58.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe969…5d75backed Under | 45c | 56.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f2…55c6backed Under | 44c | 56.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd07d…8a68backed Over | 60c | 45.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b9…7604backed Over | 61c | 45.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cb…11cdbacked Over | 61c | 45.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…9759backed Over | 60c | 45.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…0a69backed Over | 61c | 45.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…135bbacked Over | 59c | 44.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…5e9cbacked Over | 59c | 43.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca5…4d3bbacked Over | 61c | 41.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6d…72b3backed Under | 45c | 41.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…f177backed Over | 59c | 41.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…a569backed Over | 61c | 39.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…5205backed Over | 61c | 39.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…704ebacked Under | 45c | 38.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030f…4c3bbacked Over | 61c | 38.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…743cbacked Under | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…4b22backed Under | 46c | 26.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Twins vs. White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Twins (-1.5)No won
- Twins vs. White SoxWhite Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.