TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa343…135b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
28
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: MLB, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-68.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.74
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.55
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.71
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.7
Mavericks vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.7
Grizzlies vs. Thunderbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.82
Lakers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.75
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.9
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+42.9%+$19.77
Grizzlies vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$36.97
Lakers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$51.3
Grizzlies vs. Bucksbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+132.6%+$64.48
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lightning vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.22
Canucks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$10.25
Capitals vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$35.09
Maple Leafs vs. Predatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.07
Blackhawks vs. Hurricanesbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$28.4
All 5 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Twins vs. White Sox: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$18.4
Mariners vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$40.13
Diamondbacks vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$44.48
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$34.54
Yoon reinstated as President before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$24.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$15.64
Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$51.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+190.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+190.1%+$100.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+88.7%+$39.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+63.9%+$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.