TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Islanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Islanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,680
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,680 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecb1…5da3backed Islanders39c7,000$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,73011352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Islanders39c5,232$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.585843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Lightning61c4,942$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.432650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Lightning62c4,839$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.715660.7%34 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Islanders40c4,319$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.313852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Lightning61c4,137$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.842864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…410ebacked Lightning61c4,098$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Lightning51c3,819$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.2313348.1%64 W · 69 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Lightning63c3,187$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.796450%32 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Lightning61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.994450%22 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Islanders39c2,642$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.3824546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Islanders38c2,514$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.3136242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe829…f91cbacked Lightning61c2,318$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.314751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning60c2,013$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.3966951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.0324457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Islanders38c1,816$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.7913845.7%63 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Islanders39c1,755$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.2649351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Islanders38c1,567$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.421,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5a…5040backed Islanders38c1,331$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba3…e7acbacked Lightning62c1,300$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Islanders39c1,097$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.8330549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning60c839.07$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.681,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Lightning60c742.4$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.3921750.2%109 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Islanders38c673.23$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8313756.2%77 W · 60 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked Islanders32c650$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2088145.7%37 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Islanders38c632$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1679251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning60c601$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.475155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0360…7be1backed Islanders41c486.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.668139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf296…9839backed Lightning60c321.66$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Lightning61c311$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.299064.4%58 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Lightning61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11720649.5%102 W · 104 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11450857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Islanders40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85a7…10d6backed Islanders27c299.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Islanders39c260.11$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4437738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Islanders40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning74c242.06$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.783,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x345c…8cbcbacked Lightning62c201.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.611090%9 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick55cpaid+66.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa33f…c25ebacked Lightning50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Islanders39c179.28$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1784051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Islanders32c163.43$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2591334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Lightning62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2930946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6d…7d7cbacked Islanders39c159$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.011546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe22f…0f5dbacked Lightning61c159$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.011353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bc…e3acbacked Islanders39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c7…5dd7backed Lightning61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5afb…57d0backed Lightning61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+42.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34a1…6c73backed Islanders39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e9…9ae6backed Islanders39c145$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.551741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4f…894abacked Lightning61c145$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.551136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Islanders12c142.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb4…e810backed Lightning65c138.78$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.782864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc895…ff63backed Islanders40c136.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.471250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b89…329ebacked Islanders39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Islanders40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf07b…60a3backed Lightning62c120.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.974257.1%24 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb3c…28c2backed Islanders39c120$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a1…3655backed Lightning61c120$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce02…f887backed Lightning61c117.71$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.026956.5%39 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa343…135bbacked Islanders40c115.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x225f…e3a4backed Islanders40c115.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.19850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning61c113.11$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1157238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08d…d5d4backed Lightning60c109.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444161%25 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Islanders38c105$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.960549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Islanders38c104.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.972444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d06…59c8backed Lightning61c100.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.292070%14 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+33.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lightning61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3935154.1%190 W · 161 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b84…5ddebacked Lightning61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+49.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xab88…8a0cbacked Lightning61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fd…d003backed Islanders40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7b8…804cbacked Islanders39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+50.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49c2…b88cbacked Lightning60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Islanders40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Lightning60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Lightning61c98.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3611051.8%57 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Lightning62c97.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.317363%109 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabd4…853dbacked Lightning61c97.02$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.841566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acf…cd97backed Islanders40c94.02$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.822343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x623d…4b22backed Islanders40c92.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.19850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6c…cee2backed Lightning61c88.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9043…2465backed Lightning61c88.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick55cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0c8…3cbbbacked Lightning61c88.54$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.53955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb24…df3fbacked Lightning61c85.43$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.32862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1b…72fcbacked Islanders38c85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d7…2964backed Lightning62c85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500a…a800backed Lightning65c84.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.396558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7b2…7c50backed Lightning62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Islanders42c78.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9f…9686backed Lightning61c78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.42875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97d1…3ec4backed Islanders39c78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.421457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a6…99b1backed Islanders41c77.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.811861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3803…0a69backed Lightning61c77.57$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.255100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd2…a281backed Lightning61c76.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+70.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a59…b88abacked Lightning61c74.66$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x021a…51d5backed Islanders40c73.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ff…94c9backed Islanders40c72.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a01…8926backed Lightning62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3da5…206bbacked Islanders38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd14…4486backed Islanders39c67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.131154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57b…73fbbacked Lightning61c67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.