Premier League · resolved market
Port Vale FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c34a6c8b4b585f632d47cb503d80d7ee4da36baabcebaca43f6475f92cc818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 2,334$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.97 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 77c | 664.18$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 24c | 399.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…34b9backed Over | 29c | 380.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…8107backed Under | 71c | 196.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Under | 71c | 184.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 71c | 155.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 350 | 56.9%199 W · 151 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | +21.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Over | 22c | 72.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 79c | 72.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1c6ebacked Under | 76c | 65.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 78c | 62.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 253 | 48.2%122 W · 131 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 331 | 56.8%188 W · 143 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 322 | 55.9%180 W · 142 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 326 | 56.7%185 W · 141 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 315 | 57.8%182 W · 133 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 321 | 58.6%188 W · 133 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 76c | 56.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 72c | 52.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 296 | 57.8%171 W · 125 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Under | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Port Vale FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Port Vale FC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Port Vale FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Port Vale FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Port Vale FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-1.5)Port Vale FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.