Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d7ae6033a6e7d5a5de1fe5db0b3263274410f93ad526d0a9ba760588bf0319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 21,000$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 1c | 1,874$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 14c | 1,223$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 4c | 1,046$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked No | 34c | 778.28$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.96 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 65c | 757.3$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.7 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 76c | 728.46$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 365.77$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 333.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 241.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 141.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 119.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 59c | 106.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 104.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 86.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 66c | 86.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 76.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 68.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…bf9fbacked No | 52c | 52.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 52.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 69c | 50.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 50.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 43c | 49.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed No | 68c | 48.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 42c | 47.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 57c | 43.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 56c | 42.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 39.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 37c | 38.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 30c | 38.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 35.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 44c | 33.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 42c | 33.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 43c | 32.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 78c | 32.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 77c | 30.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 30.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 27.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 56c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 45c | 22.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.