NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74e8d96a73d0fd4af567eccd399210308fbccdb52af89c437609fbd44d41ebc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 1,125$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.83 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 44c | 1,064$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.24 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 46c | 411.73$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.97 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 400$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.7 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 384.05$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 280.62$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 48c | 214.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 50c | 200.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 173.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 51c | 153.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 48c | 152.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 144.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 107.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 51c | 105.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 97.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Over | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 51c | 90.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 86.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 82.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 62c | 78.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 59c | 50.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Under | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 46.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…2fecbacked Under | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb81…739ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 33.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 30.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 53c | 29.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 53c | 28.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 48c | 27.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Devils vs. Red WingsDevils won
- Devils vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Devils vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Devils vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.