Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x752f87a44c449c1b882ae5cbfff79aea79fab31b07acaa4f3f20edc46acef123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 7,889$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.93 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 32c | 3,135$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.12 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…544dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,418$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 31c | 999.95$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 12c | 877.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 71c | 854.13$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.69 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 70c | 745.04$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 70c | 744.5$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.83 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 70c | 714.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.98 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 69c | 361.74$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 70c | 318.49$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…b921backed Yes | 33c | 306.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 71c | 284.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 71c | 284.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 71c | 284.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 71c | 284.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 31c | 267.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 70c | 247.3$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 68c | 221.5$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 68c | 201$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 68c | 146.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 68c | 146.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 32c | 116$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…55d0backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 13c | 83.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 70c | 71.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…5473backed Yes | 29c | 70.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 70c | 66.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 75c | 46.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 76c | 45.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 30c | 45.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 74c | 42.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…68c7backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed No | 76c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed No | 71c | 23.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 70c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked No | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?No won
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.