Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c6dc52c42ad99f95ab51be2deb1f63a609d474e4067312fd14773980b955b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 43c | 12,642$5,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,427.17 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 64c | 7,863$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 4,836$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.56 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 51c | 2,469$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.27 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 41c | 2,346$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.89 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 69c | 1,405$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.17 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 67c | 1,174$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.62 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,173$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.59 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,163$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.63 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 60c | 777.36$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.34 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 60c | 777.36$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.34 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 17c | 719.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 56c | 656.89$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.8 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 38c | 611.5$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.68 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Yes | 76c | 605.01$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 15c | 532$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 46c | 460.5$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.01 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…306fbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 38c | 313$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.37 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 38c | 191.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Yes | 38c | 191.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Yes | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 80c | 153.44$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Yes | 38c | 132.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 28c | 115.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 729 | 44.2%322 W · 407 L | -29.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Yes | 78c | 113.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 68c | 109$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 63c | 105.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 30c | 104.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Yes | 67c | 94.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 68c | 74.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 37c | 69.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 39c | 63.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 62c | 57.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 60c | 47.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Yes | 39c | 44.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 57c | 31.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 35c | 30.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 50c | 25.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 51c | 23.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 118 | 63.6%75 W · 43 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.