TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

BMW Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Alex Molcan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex Molcanof Emilio Nava, Alex Molcan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31c1…7047backed Emilio Nava20c9,536$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.9679855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alex Molcan73c2,941$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.8911,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Alex Molcan61c2,272$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.556,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Emilio Nava31c2,165$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.341251%210 W · 202 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Emilio Nava37c1,984$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.937037.1%26 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Alex Molcan65c1,747$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.834,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Emilio Nava57c1,287$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.6460753.7%326 W · 281 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Alex Molcan58c1,066$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.9234136.4%124 W · 217 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Emilio Nava42c1,022$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.441,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Alex Molcan42c965.2$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.821,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad31…5217backed Emilio Nava26c955.57$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Alex Molcan66c797.93$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.143,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Alex Molcan44c747.12$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.3897745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Alex Molcan46c525$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.0960641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alex Molcan59c520.34$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.842,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Emilio Nava19c504.04$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.131,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Alex Molcan44c480.74$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.212,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Emilio Nava14c474.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3931039.4%122 W · 188 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Alex Molcan75c458.17$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.737,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Emilio Nava56c434.64$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.41,88145.7%860 W · 1,021 L+51.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Emilio Nava38c388.71$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7110729%31 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Emilio Nava56c366.25$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.15954.2%32 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked Alex Molcan47c358.94$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.2412750.4%64 W · 63 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Emilio Nava33c352.72$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.744,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Emilio Nava24c352.36$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2336854.3%200 W · 168 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Emilio Nava14c339.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4235436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Emilio Nava36c339.49$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.532,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Emilio Nava60c325.33$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.211462.3%71 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Emilio Nava53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15941060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Emilio Nava36c293.71$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.781,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Emilio Nava33c290.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9862534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Alex Molcan77c288.06$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6219851%101 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Alex Molcan44c219.64$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12336038.9%140 W · 220 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Alex Molcan43c193.16$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.136852.7%194 W · 174 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Emilio Nava53c189$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.171,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7541…7d75backed Alex Molcan61c180.09$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.243852.6%20 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Alex Molcan43c179.68$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4225250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x610b…36a3backed Emilio Nava27c177.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8154844.5%244 W · 304 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d5…2149backed Emilio Nava26c173.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0618540%74 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Emilio Nava56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3627739%108 W · 169 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Alex Molcan43c166.51$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.911,10752.8%585 W · 522 L+2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Alex Molcan60c160.93$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3748650.6%246 W · 240 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Emilio Nava56c156.47$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6233048.8%161 W · 169 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Emilio Nava34c149.82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.941,16144.3%514 W · 647 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Alex Molcan49c148.38$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.671,92655.4%1,067 W · 859 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc046…f138backed Alex Molcan69c142.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.094584.4%38 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Alex Molcan74c138.2$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9692352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62e…108dbacked Alex Molcan43c134.76$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.817834.6%27 W · 51 L-9.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec18…89ebbacked Emilio Nava22c128.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.591921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-52.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bb1…a5b7backed Emilio Nava28c126.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4440%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb89…ec39backed Alex Molcan48c121.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.972958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a7f…85c3backed Emilio Nava55c105.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.382941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Alex Molcan61c100.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6556754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Alex Molcan44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed Emilio Nava58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5833747.2%159 W · 178 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Alex Molcan43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d84…a7bdbacked Alex Molcan43c96.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.054351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Emilio Nava33c95.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.671,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4f…5394backed Emilio Nava14c95.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Emilio Nava14c94.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2829519.7%58 W · 237 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Alex Molcan43c91.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9977047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed Emilio Nava54c90.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8625756%144 W · 113 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Emilio Nava51c86.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0739534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Emilio Nava54c86.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.387,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Emilio Nava26c83.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.042,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Alex Molcan68c78.46$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1181956.9%466 W · 353 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Alex Molcan63c77.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8736964.2%237 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Emilio Nava25c73.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.381233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…41dbbacked Emilio Nava37c73.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6a…ed83backed Emilio Nava41c70.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9413432.8%44 W · 90 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Alex Molcan66c66.04$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.36,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Emilio Nava28c65.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.756817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x956d…b750backed Emilio Nava38c63.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0710757.9%62 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Emilio Nava33c61.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.358543.5%37 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…1414backed Emilio Nava32c59.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.189645.8%44 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Alex Molcan43c49.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.322,44051.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L+9.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Alex Molcan74c49.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6591880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Emilio Nava33c48.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.183,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x713d…15d0backed Alex Molcan66c44.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.135168.6%35 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5b…7216backed Emilio Nava48c43.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0414770.7%104 W · 43 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2336…b150backed Emilio Nava38c43.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.371553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Alex Molcan45c42.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.651,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Alex Molcan45c42.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.645054%27 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4934…cca1backed Emilio Nava57c42.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.368463.1%53 W · 31 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Alex Molcan45c41.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8736135.7%129 W · 232 L-35.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc274…86debacked Emilio Nava28c40.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3449342.8%211 W · 282 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…d6c0backed Emilio Nava51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49455.3%52 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Alex Molcan43c39.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5386050.1%431 W · 429 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e1…f17fbacked Emilio Nava29c36.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5924463.5%155 W · 89 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Emilio Nava54c36.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4588560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d1…e55ebacked Emilio Nava53c35.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f79…adddbacked Alex Molcan70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7115374.5%114 W · 39 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Emilio Nava55c35.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a2…7a1fbacked Alex Molcan75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3318478.8%145 W · 39 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Emilio Nava34c33.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.451,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Alex Molcan67c33.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9357267.3%385 W · 187 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Alex Molcan46c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.828256.1%46 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29e6…f2acbacked Alex Molcan78c31.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…3f92backed Alex Molcan80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2522482.6%185 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick80cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf824…651fbacked Emilio Nava42c30.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.915147%71 W · 80 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.