CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Team Arise (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75357e6c6f96a1621ad8a3cd48d330b642d56a3efb11d34b59d9df97478dc14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chinggis Warriorsof Chinggis Warriors, Team Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Arise | 22c | 598.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…180ebacked Chinggis Warriors | 80c | 304.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Chinggis Warriors | 78c | 253.03$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Chinggis Warriors | 74c | 186.44$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Arise | 23c | 120.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Arise | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Arise | 23c | 98.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chinggis Warriors | 78c | 96.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Chinggis Warriors | 76c | 72.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Arise | 32c | 61.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Team Arise | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -13.9wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Team Arise | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Chinggis Warriors | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Chinggis Warriors | 69c | 39.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 225 | 51.1%115 W · 110 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Team Arise | 40c | 34.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…faacbacked Chinggis Warriors | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Chinggis Warriors | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Chinggis Warriors | 68c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Team Arise (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #3 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Team Arise - Map 1 WinnerChinggis Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.