South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-03-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753f05a199227e9ec1371502b0dbbaf440329c8393ec8259a80af158530df6a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,583 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 2,932$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.96 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,250$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,250$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.18 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 20c | 999.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes | 25c | 800.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 21c | 761.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 25c | 753.47$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 10c | 574.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…45bfbacked Yes | 26c | 519.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 9c | 366.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 345.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7c…3db5backed Yes | 27c | 308$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c8…a016backed No | 73c | 308$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 31c | 283.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 282.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 26c | 249.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Yes | 31c | 230$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Yes | 25c | 166.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 12c | 158.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 26c | 127$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 25c | 119.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 27c | 101.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 93.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Yes | 27c | 73.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 72.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…10c8backed Yes | 35c | 65.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 74c | 59.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 54.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 41.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 72c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 74c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 77c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-03-10?this page
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Racing Club win on 2026-03-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.