Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754232427216be94ae9104be0dde7380c70c02ff975e6d2b2c7af3d4807e6444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 54c | 749.56$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.44 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 51c | 212.48$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 45c | 173.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 42c | 161.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…6999backed Yes | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 92.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 72.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 69.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 48c | 65.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 54.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 58c | 52.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…4161backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…9cb0backed Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…3e23backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…64ebbacked Yes | 51c | 51.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…d8b0backed Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…2ad5backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2157…923cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…ae85backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 41.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 38.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…1297backed Yes | 44c | 31.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…3e88backed No | 48c | 28.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 73c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.