Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754da6484de0d33f8281b609424d802c83a8289e6ea8eab1ce9cb11c2f410414
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 18c | 371.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 127 | 32.3%41 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 201.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 8c | 132.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 113.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 99.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 35c | 99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 64c | 94.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 75.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 30c | 61.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 51.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 68c | 48.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 47.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 69c | 46.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 35c | 45.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 36c | 42.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 40.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 39.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…d5fbbacked No | 80c | 27.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 69c | 23.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…19c4backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 69c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…7cf5backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed No | 78c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.