Tennis · resolved market
Bucaramanga: Nicolas Villalon vs Matias Soto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754e74586886e52c60a61ec367fd2885f179f568776fb245bf5af6d94fef01bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matias Sotoof Nicolas Villalon, Matias Soto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Villalon | 15c | 1,460$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Nicolas Villalon | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…c376backed Nicolas Villalon | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Nicolas Villalon | 16c | 980$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nicolas Villalon | 10c | 889.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Nicolas Villalon | 12c | 795.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nicolas Villalon | 12c | 672.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Nicolas Villalon | 12c | 666.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nicolas Villalon | 8c | 648.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Nicolas Villalon | 15c | 632.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Nicolas Villalon | 9c | 428.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nicolas Villalon | 9c | 377.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Nicolas Villalon | 15c | 368.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Matias Soto | 77c | 259.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 504 | 58.9%297 W · 207 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Nicolas Villalon | 16c | 225$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nicolas Villalon | 25c | 222.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Nicolas Villalon | 16c | 199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nicolas Villalon | 15c | 171.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Nicolas Villalon | 17c | 166$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Matias Soto | 76c | 164.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Nicolas Villalon | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Matias Soto | 75c | 114.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…804ebacked Nicolas Villalon | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 155 | 14.2%22 W · 133 L | -27.4wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked Nicolas Villalon | 19c | 98.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Matias Soto | 75c | 71.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 262 | 54.6%143 W · 119 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Nicolas Villalon | 24c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Matias Soto | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed Matias Soto | 76c | 52.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 416 | 68%283 W · 133 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Matias Soto | 75c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Matias Soto | 76c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed Matias Soto | 74c | 14.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.