Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7559fdb91459768caa6d198f1acbf7cf0f0bcb084008e812a3a6834ae6425246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 36c | 379.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 226.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 181.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 164.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 29c | 159.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…9059backed No | 75c | 151.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 30c | 127.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 69c | 124$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 69c | 117.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 116.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 106.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 37c | 105.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 60c | 99.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 17c | 90.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 57c | 89.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 30c | 82.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 81.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 25c | 67.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 64.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 57c | 58.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 58.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 55.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 53.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 53.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 67c | 52.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 49.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 40c | 45.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 41.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 40.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…f9a3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 44c | 31.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…d234backed No | 70c | 28.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ba…f4febacked No | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…1884backed No | 77c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 21.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 21.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 69c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.