Fifa International · resolved market
Will Norway beat Italy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75608ffe4526aa21743ad6338a78c95ea51aac51b8e2773ea5cb753e7f8413af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 38c | 1,617$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…a73abacked Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…def0backed No | 65c | 1,345$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 65c | 1,335$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d4…8603backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe849…d0b4backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…974fbacked Yes | 35c | 970$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…cbacbacked No | 65c | 755$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 50c | 700$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 36c | 688.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.43 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 37c | 543.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 66c | 467.71$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.74 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 39c | 461.7$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 63c | 408.11$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Yes | 34c | 306.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.32 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f74…c5c6backed No | 65c | 245$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 64c | 211.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…0c57backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 64c | 112.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…f055backed Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 35c | 83.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb3…5e73backed No | 65c | 76.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…0b12backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…7a83backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed No | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 66c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 76c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway beat Italy?this page
- Will Italy beat Norway?No won
- Will Norway vs. Italy end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.