Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy beat Norway?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abce47bc1ce38dd4f8d5fca4514cdc0a1e7b329bc7e373ab7a623591ffca480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 63c | 14,028$8,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,124.16 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 37c | 8,116$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes | 36c | 4,626$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.39 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 37c | 4,445$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 63c | 2,123$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.46 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 37c | 2,088$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.43 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 9c | 1,975$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 36c | 1,914$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked No | 75c | 1,282$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…caecbacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f2…f6c4backed Yes | 31c | 914.12$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 63c | 913.4$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.89 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…43b5backed Yes | 36c | 860$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 67c | 648.41$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.87 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…fb35backed Yes | 37c | 551.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 62c | 299.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 35c | 298.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes | 40c | 291.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…0c81backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 34c | 224.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 60c | 191.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 37c | 160.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…4375backed Yes | 37c | 132.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Yes | 37c | 104.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634e…a70fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…cd23backed Yes | 38c | 94.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 91.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…302fbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…318bbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…3075backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 75.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 66.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9040…9e22backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…915cbacked Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 38c | 31.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…7a83backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…0b12backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy beat Norway?this page
- Will Norway beat Italy?Yes won
- Will Norway vs. Italy end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.