Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7597e670c48845903dde74e7eac8ce23219788ccb9abbe4f1774dcb2438c0fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Yes | 28c | 178.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 129.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 107$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 97.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 86.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 63c | 79.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 22c | 72.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…813ebacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 63.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 78c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…c68cbacked Yes | 22c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 26c | 52.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…8dfbbacked Yes | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…500fbacked No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…2ea6backed No | 78c | 41.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 26c | 41.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 39.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 74c | 36.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…6a09backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5594backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 80c | 28.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed No | 78c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 67c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 75c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 76c | 15.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.