Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d54c4f7246c85bfa56fb0ce75c68d4e13aee94d93c75a72054e95ee922800ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 309.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 201.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 179.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 178.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 157.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…36f6backed Yes | 57c | 148.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 46c | 131.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 39c | 94.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 85.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 47c | 78.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 42c | 69.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 52c | 66.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 64.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 63c | 47.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…5743backed No | 55c | 44.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 37c | 42.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 41.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 56c | 36.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa90d…ce28backed Yes | 80c | 35.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 57c | 34.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 32.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 41c | 29.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 55c | 27.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 59c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 55c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 17.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 80c | 15.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 79c | 13.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.