Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75fe8ee3bfb14cd3b1e6cc9de555062db2178c68ffcd4ad248abd7e6606c7e09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 637.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 450.53$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 426.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 310.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 32c | 263.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 255.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 219.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 183.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 170.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 7c | 157.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 32c | 118.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 93.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 87.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 29c | 86.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 75.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 74.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 70.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 73c | 67.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 33c | 64.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 55.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 32c | 51.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 47c | 47.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 41.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 27c | 39.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…cb6abacked Yes | 42c | 34.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…47abbacked No | 75c | 34.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 34.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 44c | 33.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…ce1cbacked No | 74c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 58c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 26.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 57c | 26.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 58c | 17.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.