Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe591f08d9926b56de09e977108131ebbfa1b0e44a473acb0ccab2dfea6beb26f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 33c | 450.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.21 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 27c | 219.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 188.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 186.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 160.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 154.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 68c | 130.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 71c | 97.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 87.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 76.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 72.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 59c | 64.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 46c | 64.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 26c | 61.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 56.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 54.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 27c | 54.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…5973backed No | 57c | 53.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 46.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 46.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 26c | 44.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695e…7d72backed Yes | 27c | 42.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 39.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 36.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 27.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 20.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 67c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 74c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 71c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.