Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeccedf1e197f824c434e5b0c237bcc80888e7b76dadb3c8f51eaf6ee7b80073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 1c | 1,171$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 487.82$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 371.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…b1d9backed Yes | 6c | 255.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 184.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 37c | 135.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 128.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 11c | 110.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 19c | 106.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…bce9backed Yes | 70c | 88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 87.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 86.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked Yes | 36c | 80.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 73.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 65c | 66.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 39c | 57.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 22c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 33c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 44.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 41.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 80c | 37.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 69c | 36.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 75c | 33.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…116fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 26.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a1…ed13backed Yes | 72c | 20.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 57c | 17.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.