South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Atlas FC vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x761d5e8c0f15df49a0b5f93cd4189bbda8e80dd48bcb95b5b03d5dfa171dabe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,308 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 8,354$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010.21 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 61c | 6,553$3,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.63 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 3,635$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.05 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 16c | 330$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…269dbacked Yes | 19c | 152.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 21c | 146.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 78c | 119.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 13c | 108.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 23c | 106.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Yes | 24c | 98.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Yes | 37c | 74.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 72.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 39c | 72.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 18c | 69.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…7c65backed Yes | 38c | 51.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 35c | 49.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 40.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…7e7bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlas FC vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlas FC win on 2026-03-04?Yes won
- Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.