Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7628cfb087525d5b4280aabc50ff2bf25146a845cc70c0c7ec576eef769bd9fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 608.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 364.61$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 321.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 80c | 172.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 167.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 153.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 153$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 150.25$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 126.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 74c | 123.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 77c | 118.22$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 49c | 95.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 52c | 90.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 33c | 85.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 79.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 74.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 21c | 73.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 75c | 70.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 33c | 57.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 30c | 48.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 69c | 39.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 37.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…f4eabacked No | 79c | 36.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 33c | 33.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed No | 72c | 32.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 29.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 71c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…e65fbacked No | 77c | 15.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 79c | 14.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.