Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf5891afae02a3ee29d2c0d5a3de3a3e66bcf49ad4e7ca61bdf36b3ffe0ce7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 316.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 304.31$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 269.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 239.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 78c | 195.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 171.48$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 170.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 28c | 132.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 30c | 114.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 74c | 110.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…062dbacked No | 70c | 110.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…3f2ebacked Yes | 43c | 109.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 95.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…8b68backed No | 28c | 87.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 74c | 83.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked No | 70c | 68.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 69c | 68.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 32c | 66.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 64c | 63.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 60.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 57.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 34c | 57.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 20c | 53.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 37c | 51.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 46c | 51.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 35c | 50.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 73c | 47.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 34c | 45.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 33c | 45.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…f4eabacked No | 65c | 44.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 34c | 43.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 75c | 38.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…194fbacked No | 70c | 37.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 72c | 37.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…daecbacked Yes | 37c | 35.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 34c | 31.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 27.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 60c | 25.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 74c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…910bbacked Yes | 58c | 19.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.