Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d1e76f1afb9eb1913b7db29192d52d1f666632976016384e0c5bc1bbd2acc71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 62c | 476.79$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 386.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 315.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 210.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 200.72$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 26c | 193.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 34c | 182.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 177.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 170.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 150.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 40c | 149.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 23c | 138.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 111.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 111.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 43c | 109.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 107.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 104.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 104.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 35c | 98.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 95.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 88.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 80.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 36c | 78.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 33c | 63.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…ac30backed Yes | 33c | 61.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 56.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 49.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 66c | 48.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 30c | 46.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 43.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 36c | 43.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 35c | 43.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 68c | 43.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…daecbacked Yes | 35c | 42.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 49c | 40.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 36.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 36.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 79c | 32.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 57c | 31.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 30.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked No | 54c | 30.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…8b68backed No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 78c | 28.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 27.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb9…6c79backed No | 62c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 67c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 17.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 64c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.