NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Devils: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7632f46f57391e8dfc0a13c9961307af9eb2705146e038cbc0b9bc7ec30deee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 56c | 28,764$16,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,080.93 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 44c | 11,977$5,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,707.18 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 6,416$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,593.11 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 45c | 3,312$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.12 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…a470backed Over | 55c | 1,030$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…e715backed Under | 45c | 1,030$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 864$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.84 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Under | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 296$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 40c | 128.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Over | 56c | 99.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed Under | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…8697backed Under | 45c | 87.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Devils: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. DevilsDevils won
- Panthers vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.