South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76af856ef93257a5c99087318503ac2082311338618e9a4054144d4106b4ca81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 62c | 35,000$21,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,304.49 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 38c | 19,457$7,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,390.51 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 38c | 14,517$5,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,516.62 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 2,464$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.15 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8061…0ca8backed No | 62c | 1,693$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…9d3cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,693$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 77c | 1,497$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.98 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,279$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6737…2e6abacked No | 62c | 550$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…ed31backed Yes | 38c | 550$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 38c | 526$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 430.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 39c | 422.74$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.12 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 38c | 410.83$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 38c | 249.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 42c | 179.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 38c | 164.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 62c | 160.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…7a96backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…fac5backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Yes | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Yes | 35c | 101.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…06cbbacked Yes | 39c | 58.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53d0…5acabacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab53…df58backed No | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9b2ebacked No | 62c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-15?this page
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-15?No won
- Will SC Recife vs. Ceará SC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.