South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SC Recife vs. Ceará SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe14fd7288fbdb49f8703dcbbb15e353be08fbd4ed9e342f6a0db05ca49531f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…a24cbacked Yes | 30c | 5,011$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…f452backed Yes | 30c | 4,999$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce28…a046backed No | 70c | 2,861$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…a549backed No | 70c | 2,855$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c08…5d69backed No | 70c | 2,144$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf99…0bd4backed No | 70c | 2,143$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 41c | 1,909$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.1 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…2360backed Yes | 31c | 1,677$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…5930backed No | 72c | 1,656$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…acc7backed Yes | 31c | 1,656$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 39c | 1,575$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…129abacked No | 71c | 1,535$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,051$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 67c | 860.04$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.46 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 63c | 706$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.74 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 590$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.9 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 558$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.42 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 40c | 400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed No | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 29c | 152$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…e7d4backed No | 71c | 111.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 29c | 107.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd4…7ab4backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 71c | 30.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…73c6backed No | 71c | 29.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Recife vs. Ceará SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-15?No won
- Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.