Tennis · resolved market
ITF Roehampton: Emily Appleton vs Ella McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ece8645342b55e3de2bd5433ebf9afbfdb7f56ae62d3a4226c5d9cd39c2503
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ella McDonaldof Emily Appleton, Ella McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Emily Appleton | 27c | 8,543$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.55 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ella McDonald | 66c | 7,261$4,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.18 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Emily Appleton | 27c | 2,145$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.58 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…f4f1backed Emily Appleton | 27c | 398$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Emily Appleton | 22c | 313.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Emily Appleton | 25c | 256.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Ella McDonald | 68c | 222.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Ella McDonald | 59c | 194.35$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Ella McDonald | 57c | 183.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Ella McDonald | 56c | 173.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Ella McDonald | 60c | 144.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Emily Appleton | 19c | 142.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Emily Appleton | 34c | 138.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Ella McDonald | 59c | 129.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…705fbacked Ella McDonald | 72c | 119$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ed01backed Ella McDonald | 74c | 103$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Emily Appleton | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Emily Appleton | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Emily Appleton | 46c | 65.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Ella McDonald | 69c | 63.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Emily Appleton | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Emily Appleton | 31c | 53.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Ella McDonald | 65c | 52.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Ella McDonald | 70c | 51.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…0111backed Emily Appleton | 42c | 45.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Emily Appleton | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ella McDonald | 53c | 41.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Ella McDonald | 53c | 38.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Ella McDonald | 58c | 32.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Ella McDonald | 73c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Emily Appleton | 37c | 28.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd74…00a1backed Ella McDonald | 74c | 27.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 496 | 58.1%288 W · 208 L | +32.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Ella McDonald | 79c | 24.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Ella McDonald | 56c | 24.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 259 | 51.7%134 W · 125 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Ella McDonald | 68c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Ella McDonald | 65c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Ella McDonald | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…6276backed Ella McDonald | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Ella McDonald | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.