Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ed8d29d949e7c5754c724afac710a68a0c44f15e1c204fc73254163964be7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 364.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 178.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 173.47$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 157.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 123.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 98.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 70c | 94.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 83.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 75.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 74.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 60.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 56.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 48.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 47.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 46.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 44.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 40.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 37.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 74c | 28.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 74c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.