CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs WATERMELON (BO3) - Myskill Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76eff4d0a72c7c32db4210a59aa4294a97b9c5879af1cc99df9841618b455439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Novaqof Team Novaq, WATERMELON
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed WATERMELON | 2c | 936$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed WATERMELON | 40c | 800$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.03 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Team Novaq | 38c | 538.24$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.24 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Novaq | 73c | 432.68$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Novaq | 60c | 230.32$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Novaq | 58c | 221.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Team Novaq | 59c | 197.72$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 218 | 67%146 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed WATERMELON | 32c | 190.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed WATERMELON | 42c | 180.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Team Novaq | 18c | 130.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…a86ebacked Team Novaq | 71c | 93.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 193 | 55.4%107 W · 86 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked Team Novaq | 55c | 91.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed WATERMELON | 33c | 84.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Novaq | 72c | 82.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed WATERMELON | 34c | 70.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 151 | 42.4%64 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed WATERMELON | 23c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Team Novaq | 41c | 67.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed WATERMELON | 41c | 67.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…b15ebacked WATERMELON | 38c | 66.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked WATERMELON | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked WATERMELON | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d2…46a0backed Team Novaq | 38c | 38.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed WATERMELON | 34c | 37.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed WATERMELON | 41c | 31.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed Team Novaq | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Team Novaq | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Team Novaq | 61c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795a…7b60backed Team Novaq | 64c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…ca17backed Team Novaq | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs WATERMELON (BO3) - Myskill Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs WATERMELON - Map 1 WinnerTeam Novaq won
- Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs WATERMELON - Map 2 WinnerWATERMELON won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.