Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Daniel Galan vs Hugo Grenier
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f368323cf36dba378b03c9a9a1e66aab5cbb3f5a474241ff8e4402f795b4a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grenierof Galan, Grenier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Galan | 4c | 507.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Galan | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grenier | 58c | 451.63$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Grenier | 47c | 310.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Grenier | 52c | 275$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grenier | 57c | 237.18$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Galan | 42c | 179.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Galan | 42c | 143.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Galan | 40c | 125.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Grenier | 55c | 118$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Grenier | 68c | 107.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Grenier | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Galan | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Galan | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Galan | 20c | 91.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Grenier | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Grenier | 57c | 70.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Galan | 42c | 60.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Galan | 43c | 58.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…d232backed Grenier | 57c | 57.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…1a88backed Galan | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grenier | 52c | 53.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Grenier | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Grenier | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Galan | 38c | 36.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Galan | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Galan | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Galan | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Galan | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Grenier | 65c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Grenier | 68c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Daniel Galan vs Hugo Grenierthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Galan vs GrenierGrenier won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.