MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x771bdc203d2e46d48ff23232dc539eff2b66387198d4d19f62cbc0b4ddb0dfb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Rays | 9c | 31,191$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 70c | 13,124$9,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,886.87 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Rays | 10c | 12,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Rays | 2c | 5,704$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Rays | 16c | 1,276$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Rays | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 313 | 47.9%150 W · 163 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rays | 5c | 943$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Rays | 23c | 700$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Rays | 2c | 650$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 585 | 2.1%12 W · 573 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rays | 36c | 600$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Rays | 55c | 262.6$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cardinals | 45c | 259.87$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Cardinals | 79c | 63.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Cardinals | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 512 | 45.1%231 W · 281 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…08a6backed Rays | 44c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Cardinals | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 543 | 52.3%284 W · 259 L | +27.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…7505backed Rays | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 121 | 38%46 W · 75 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Cardinals | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.