Champions League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7780dbb926a7fe99060f7b04cc8490efe869efee9883c3ea3ae92386605333aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 9c | 3,950$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 9c | 2,779$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.12 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,474$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…2086backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 9c | 999.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 13c | 665.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 10c | 610$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…2338backed Yes | 10c | 570$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 12c | 569.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 8c | 520.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 502.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 9c | 387.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 9c | 348.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…ae1ebacked Yes | 10c | 284.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 245$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…3e4abacked Yes | 8c | 234.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 10c | 201.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked Yes | 10c | 200.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed Yes | 9c | 182$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes | 10c | 179.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 174.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 9c | 151.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 9c | 142.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Yes | 11c | 132.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 129.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…68e1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…26d9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…e6febacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-24?Yes won
- Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.