College Football · resolved market
Will Louisville beat SMU?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778732a2a0c181a77a60641238986407839083209c66000cba6cb90e84910734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMUof Louisville, SMU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed SMU | 27c | 2,504$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.76 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Louisville | 74c | 2,467$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed SMU | 25c | 1,667$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.08 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked SMU | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked SMU | 31c | 882.86$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.17 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Louisville | 27c | 503$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Louisville | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked SMU | 42c | 353$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Louisville | 59c | 339.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked SMU | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed SMU | 55c | 283.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Louisville | 71c | 250$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Louisville | 68c | 177.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked SMU | 70c | 142.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Louisville | 67c | 114.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed SMU | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Louisville | 58c | 103.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed SMU | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Louisville | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked SMU | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed SMU | 61c | 71.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…ee8ebacked SMU | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed SMU | 29c | 41.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed SMU | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Louisville | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked SMU | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…c27abacked Louisville | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Louisville | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Louisville beat SMU?this page
- Will Louisville beat SMU by 7 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.