South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778e24488c668d3a080176b5f4733d07c3552d0a5680d93038cd83ed97620254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 51c | 2,923$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.93 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 48c | 1,819$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.12 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 50c | 1,580$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.76 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 64c | 779.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 48c | 723.58$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 649$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…3953backed Yes | 51c | 587.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 382.81$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 49c | 319$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 50c | 226.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked No | 30c | 216.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.27 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 52c | 202.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked Yes | 51c | 196.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 42c | 157.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 70c | 149.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 46c | 136.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 50c | 111$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 54c | 109.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Yes | 52c | 107.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 51c | 106.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 49c | 87.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 74c | 79.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 48c | 75.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 38c | 73.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked No | 52c | 73.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 69c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -9.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…830fbacked Yes | 50c | 42.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…e18fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c3…ca76backed Yes | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-05?this page
- Will São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.