Fifa International · resolved market
Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77927e301fed9124438e246f70ecd4a3160ad0aa7ea5fc091bd1bd1211d46be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 3c | 22,167$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.02 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed Yes | 5c | 17,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked Yes | 3c | 15,038$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 3c | 11,431$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.05 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 3c | 5,596$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 4,790$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 5c | 2,217$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 5c | 2,130$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 3c | 857.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 8c | 799.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 6c | 780.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 4c | 704.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked Yes | 5c | 541.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 5c | 415$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 3c | 360$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…ecfabacked Yes | 6c | 338.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 50c | 287.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 50c | 202.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…213abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 133.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12?this page
- Will Cyprus win on 2025-10-12?Yes won
- Will San Marino vs. Cyprus end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.