MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a61d2cfd9ef8cad40301917a8c9a4867a478822044167704b8f476c333eab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Chicago White Sox | 77c | 677.21$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 487$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 159$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 119.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 113$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 108.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 97.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 53.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 50.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.