Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77c11521ab57e71e486be211d64e4dc95e40db76638826e9c403472668bad874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Tundra Esports, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 1,276$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.61 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tundra Esports | 35c | 469.12$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 418.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 331$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…9ef7backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 301.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tundra Esports | 36c | 194.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 130.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 101.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Tundra Esports | 42c | 47.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 27.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.