South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Alianza Atlético vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77c29384f95dc6afa9f8ebd6d6a00aed65c716dbe6c80645d5e0b97f3d193fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 2,664$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.54 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,297$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.83 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 61c | 1,110$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.97 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 980$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.2 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 418.81$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.42 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 74c | 401.28$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.58 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 63c | 300$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 51c | 243.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…ebf8backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…67bbbacked Over | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 59c | 184.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 29c | 171.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 159.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 51c | 135.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 39c | 128$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 112$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 73c | 105.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 52c | 98.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 50c | 72.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 52c | 67.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 35c | 62.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 43c | 53.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 69c | 43.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 61c | 40.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Under | 28c | 40.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 57c | 38.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed Under | 48c | 37.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 69c | 30.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 69c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Under | 61c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. CSyD Macará: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5)CSyD Macará won
- Spread: Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5)CSyD Macará won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.