Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77eb6abb097bfe2aa2dc1538721a25eb395c6a707d101013ff64c0e97537e573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd94a…2728backed Yes | 5c | 2,933$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Yes | 40c | 1,394$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 1,208$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 68c | 782.68$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.32 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Yes | 10c | 755.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 61c | 603.52$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.37 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 36c | 557.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 527.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 36c | 500.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed Yes | 32c | 250.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 64c | 249.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 61c | 248.86$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 241.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 215.15$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 5c | 214.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…2882backed Yes | 33c | 132.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 61c | 92.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…6b7bbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 67c | 27.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?No won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.