Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: LVLUP (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7806f8a389cd01a9c0348f2bde78347904fbed0d12e310c4794518c2d3467f4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof Level UP, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Level UP | 43c | 278.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 145$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 128.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 122.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked Level UP | 45c | 110.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 89.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Level UP | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 51.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Level UP | 41c | 45.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 31.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Level UP | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Level UP | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Level UP | 44c | 29.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…4e0ebacked Level UP | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LVLUP (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BLevel UP won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerLevel UP won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerLevel UP won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.