Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal beat Southampton?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78b8ea86ae5000490d8baf72fbc9f03d666587ffedf1182e3ac64ca7cb12a5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 16c | 11,355$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.2 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 15c | 7,777$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.54 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…a999backed No | 17c | 5,300$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…b590backed No | 16c | 2,999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 13c | 2,300$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.96 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 16c | 2,065$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.19 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 38c | 2,039$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.39 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…c8a0backed No | 14c | 1,550$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 73c | 1,360$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.92 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…5760backed No | 35c | 928.2$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.87 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 15c | 896.51$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 67c | 751.85$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.73 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 36c | 669.41$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.34 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…d9f9backed Yes | 65c | 560.24$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 16c | 390.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…e32abacked No | 17c | 304.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 261.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…2853backed No | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 17c | 144.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 12c | 129.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e5…cff1backed No | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…93dfbacked No | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed No | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked Yes | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed No | 13c | 88.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed No | 27c | 74.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 79c | 59.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…6d3ebacked No | 21c | 57.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…10d5backed Yes | 71c | 33.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…bdb0backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…aba9backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal beat Southampton?this page
- Will Southampton beat Arsenal?No won
- Will the match between Arsenal and Southampton end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.