Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78c70b5d5eeea061cf6f44cdd33d21e18c63877bb5ead4d038598ec98a419ada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,736 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed VP.Prodigy | 16c | 3,326$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.1 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 2,700$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.66 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Team Lynx | 65c | 1,838$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.34 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Lynx | 78c | 1,540$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.87 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 71c | 1,008$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.55 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Team Lynx | 56c | 1,000$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked VP.Prodigy | 15c | 632.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked VP.Prodigy | 41c | 485$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Lynx | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 61c | 352.73$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed VP.Prodigy | 41c | 314.49$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Team Lynx | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 29c | 269.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Lynx | 60c | 247.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed VP.Prodigy | 6c | 234$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 21c | 170.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Team Lynx | 72c | 147.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 145.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed VP.Prodigy | 37c | 137.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed VP.Prodigy | 30c | 121.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed VP.Prodigy | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 77c | 89.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Team Lynx | 62c | 72.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Team Lynx | 58c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Team Lynx | 59c | 21.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Group BTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.