NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Stars: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78fd6eaa8b429f8911fb234b89ab3a984e6c43c0c4aa8563db4caaf32e922d76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,119 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 497.94$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.23 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 34c | 419.18$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.66 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 66c | 378$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…208abacked Over | 34c | 309$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…66b6backed Under | 66c | 283$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…7bc6backed Under | 66c | 257$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 256.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe446…c56cbacked Over | 34c | 251$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 34c | 210$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…bd0cbacked Under | 66c | 186$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f5…8e41backed Over | 34c | 184$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…104dbacked Under | 66c | 181$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…1ccdbacked Under | 66c | 171$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…1a41backed Over | 34c | 170$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaae…db9fbacked Over | 34c | 164$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 66c | 141.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…bba6backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 97.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 32c | 94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 68c | 84.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 66c | 75.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 49c | 58.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 66c | 33.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…fffdbacked Under | 68c | 29.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Under | 66c | 20.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 19.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Stars: O/U 7.5this page
- Oilers vs. StarsStars won
- Oilers vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.